2046 Pacific typhoon season (Entharex's Version)
NOTE #1: THIS PAGE IS CAREFULLY MONITORED. ANY NONCONSTRUCTIVE EDITS TO THIS ARTICLE WILL BE PROMPTLY REVERTED. NOTE #2: YOU MAY FOUND SOME NAMES DIFFERENT FROM THE CURRENT NAME LIST OF WESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES (INCLUDING PAGASA'S NAME LIST). THIS IS BECAUSE SOME NAMES WERE RETIRED AND REPLACED BEFORE THE 2046 SEASON, WHICH WILL BE MORE REALISTIC. NOTE #3: LOTS OF EFFORT USED. PLEASE ENJOY! NOTE #4: THIS PAGE IS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION. The 2046 Pacific typhoon season was an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation, in which tropical cyclones formed in the western Pacific Ocean. The season began with the formation of Severe Tropical Storm Matmo on January 3, 2046; and ended after Typhoon Koppu which dissipated on January 5, 2047. The season was the most active tropical cyclone season (due to the extremely strong El Niño event throughout the year). The season has an ACE Index index of. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, fourteen tropical cyclone attained super typhoon status, thirteen of which became Category 5 Super Typhoons, marking the highest number of super typhoons and Category 5 storms in a single season on record. On the other hand, it is also the most costly tropical cyclone season ever recorded, with a total damage of 618.38 billion USD. Severe Tropical Storm Matmo in early-January was the first system in 2046, causing landslide incidents and floods in Mindanao,the Philippines resulting in 2 deaths and damage at over 114 million pesos in the island. On 16 January, Typhoon Halong formed and became a Category 4 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale shortly, which means it is the strongest tropical cyclone in January ever recorded. Typhoon Nakri in mid-February became the earliest Category 5 storm ever formed in the basin and it brought severe damage to the Mariana Islands. In April, Typhoon Fung-wong and Typhoon Kanmuri, which is a Category 5 and 4 storm respectively, raged simultaneously at the open Pacific Ocean, as well as being the earliest named sixth and seventh storm. In May, Typhoon Nuri became a Category 5 storm caused US$176 million USD in damages and killed 79 people in Marshall islands and Caroline Islands. Major Hurricane Kika crossed the International Date Line from the Central Pacific and entered the basin in late-June, and became a Category 5 storm. In July, there were 4 Category 5 storms formed in the basin. Typhoon Hagupit became the first typhoon with a central pressure lower than 900mb (890mb) since Typhoon Sanba of the 2038 season in early-July and made landfall over Taiwan, Korea and Japan causing 624 deaths and 6.7 billion US dollar of loses. On July 17, there are 6 tropical cyclones, Typhoon Nara, Tropical Storm Bavi, Typhoon Mekkhala, Typhoon Higos and 2 JMA Tropical Depressions, developed simultaneously in the basin, while Typhoon Mekkhala and Typhoon Higos interacted with each other, causing Typhoon Mekkhala to perform a cyclonic loop and landfalled over the the Philippines for two times.Typhoon Nara became the strongest storm on Earth while breaking 14 records and landfalled over the the the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, Russia and United States, causing more than 13,000 deaths (most deaths are caused by the huge storm surges and floods that damaged most temporary houses settled in Japan after the 624 Earthquake.) and 517.3 billion USD of loses, becoming the costliest and deadliest tropical cyclone worldwide in 2038. In early-August, Typhoon Dolphin traveled very slowly; it traveled only about 2700 km in a long life span of 16 days. This is due to the sudden ease of trade winds and strong, deep monsoonal westerlies to its south prevented it from fast movements. At the same time, Tropical Storm Lana crossed the International Date Line from the Central Pacific and entered the basin and became a violent Category 3 typhoon, and later became one of the most intense extratropical cyclones in the north Pacific Ocean since reliable records began and indirectly contributed to below-average temperatures in Alaska, United States.Typhoon Kujira formed near the equator in mid-August and devastated Micronesia and Guam. A few days later, it landfalled over Luzon, Philippines, with 1-minute sustainable wind speed at 265km/h measured, which means it lanfalled on the island as a catagory 5 storm, killing 2319 people in the Philippines alone, causing it to be the deadliest tropical cyclone related disaster in the Philippines since Typhoon Mitag in the 2039 season. Typhoon Chan-hom lanfalled over Kamakura, Japan as a Category 2 Typhoon. It caused the death of over 1,400 people. (Mostly due to the unfinished recovery from Typhoon Nara which devastated the city a month ago.) Tropical Depression 25W formed at the west of Mindanao, Philippines in early-September. It headed west or west-northwest and exited the basin a week later. After entering the Bay of Bengal, it intensified to a Category 3 cyclone and brought devastation to Bangladesh. Tropical Storm Soudelor was absorbed by Typhoon Nangka in early-September. In late-September, Typhoon Molave and Typhoon Goni were born as a twin and became a Category 5 duet. This only happened twice in history; Typhoon Ivan and Typhoon Joan of the 1997 season was the first to become a Category 5 duet ever. In mid-October, Typhoon Vamco formed at 30.8°N, which is far north than a typical tropical cyclone, it even strengthened to a Catagory 2 storm at 40.5°N and lanfalled over kamchatka Peninsula, Russia as a tropical storm later. Tropical Storm Omeka became the third and the last tropical cyclone that crossed the International Date Line from the Central Pacific. It entered the basin in late-October, and became a Category 5 storm afterwards. In mid-December, Typhoon Koppu became the last system of the season, as well as the last of the thirteen Category 5 storms. It dissipated on the December 22 after bringing minor damage to Micronesia; and marked an end of the season. Seasonal forecasts During the year several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many tropical cyclone, tropical storms, and typhoons will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies included the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau. Some of the forecasts took into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the El Niño Conditions that were observed during the year. The first forecast of the year was released by PAGASA during January 2046, within its seasonal climate outlook for the period January – June. The outlook noted that one to two tropical cyclones were expected between January and March while one to three were expected to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility between April and June. During March the Hong Kong Observatory predicted that the typhoon season in Hong Kong, would be near normal with five to eight tropical cyclones passing within 500 km (310 mi) of the territory compared to an average of six. Within its Pacific ENSO Update for the 2nd quarter of 2046, NOAA's Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation Applications Climate Center, noted that the risk of a damaging tropical cyclone in Micronesia was "greatly enhanced" by the strong El Niño. As a result, they forecasted that the risk of a typhoon severely affecting Micronesia was high, with most islands predicted to have a "1 in 2 chance" of serious effects from some combination of high winds, large waves and extreme rainfall from a typhoon. They also predicted that there was a near 100% chance of severe effects from a typhoon somewhere within Micronesia. On May 5, China Meteorological Administration's Shanghai Typhoon Institute (CMA-STI)predicted a total of 28-34 tropical storms will develop in the basin. On May 6, Tropical Storm Risk issued their first forecast for the season and predicted that the season, would be the most active since 1997 with activity forecast to be above average. Specifically it was forecast that 32 tropical storms, 22 typhoons, 14 intense typhoons would occur, while an ACE Index of 490 was also forecasted. In late June the Thai Meteorological Department predicted that one or two tropical cyclones would move towards Thailand during 2015. The first of the two tropical storms was predicted to pass near Upper Thailand in either August or September, while the other one was expected to move to the south of Southern Thailand during November. On June 30, Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau predicted that 30-35 tropical storms would develop over the basin, while an above average three — seven systems were expected to affect Taiwan itself. During July, Jay Frank Ford of the United States National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Tiyan, Guam, called for tropical cyclone activity to be above average or even surpassing the 1997 season. He also predicted that tens of records would be set for the number of major typhoons in the western Pacific, tropical storms, typhoons and major typhoons in Micronesia. PAGASA subsequently predicted within its July — December seasonal climate outlook, that six to twelve tropical cyclone were likely to develop and/or enter the Philippine area of responsibility between July and September, which is significantly above-average; while three to seven were predicted for the October–December period. On July 16, the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) and the City University of Hong Kong's School of Energy, released their seasonal forecast for the period between June 1 — November 30. They predicted that 27.2 tropical cyclones would develop during the period with 14.8 of these going on and making landfall compared to averages of 22.6 and 18.1 tropical cyclones. They further predicted that both the Korea — Japan region and that Taiwan and the Eastern Chinese provinces of Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian would see three to four of these landfalls each. Vietnam, the Philippines and the Southern Chinese provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan were forecasted to see five landfalling tropical cyclones. On August 5, Tropical Storm Risk issued their final forecast for the season and predicted that 2015 would be a hyperactive season and may probably surpass the 1997 season. Specifically it was forecast that 34 tropical storms, 24 typhoons, 19 intense typhoons would occur, while an ACE Index of 613 was also forecasted. Season summary ImageSize = width:720 height:260 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:2 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/01/2046 till:01/01/2047 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/01/2046 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<62_km/h_(<39_mph) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_63-88_km/h_(39-54_mph) id:ST value:rgb(0.80,1,1) legend:Severe_Tropical_Storm_=_89-117_km/h_(55-73_mph) id:TY value:rgb(0.99,0.69,0.6) legend:Typhoon_=_>118_km/h_(>74_mph) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:03/01/2046 till:11/01/2046 color:ST text:"Matmo" from:09/01/2046 till:11/01/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:16/01/2046 till:25/01/2046 color:TY text:"Halong" from:07/02/2046 till:18/02/2046 color:TY text:"Nakri" from:21/02/2046 till:25/02/2046 color:TS text:"Fengshen" from:22/03/2046 till:28/03/2046 color:ST text:"Kalmaegi" from:04/04/2046 till:16/04/2046 color:TY text:"Fung-wong" from:05/04/2046 till:14/04/2046 color:TY text:"Kanmuri" from:01/05/2046 till:06/05/2046 color:TS text:"Phanfone" from:29/04/2046 till:11/05/2046 color:TY text:"Vongfong" from:16/05/2046 till:17/05/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:16/05/2046 till:26/05/2046 color:TY text:"Nuri" barset:break from:16/05/2046 till:17/05/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:29/05/2046 till:07/06/2046 color:TY text:"Sinlaku" from:29/06/2046 till:03/07/2046 color:TY text:"Kika" from:01/07/2046 till:10/07/2046 color:TY text:"Hagupit" from:02/07/2046 till:06/07/2046 color:TS text:"Jangmi" from:09/07/2046 till:18/07/2046 color:TY text:"Makhala" from:09/07/2046 till:21/07/2046 color:TY text:"Higos" from:16/07/2046 till:20/07/2046 color:TS text:"Bavi" from:16/07/2046 till:18/07/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:16/07/2046 till:17/07/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:17/07/2046 till:04/08/2046 color:TY text:"Nara" from:22/07/2046 till:25/07/2046 color:TD text:"18W" barset:break from:24/07/2046 till:07/08/2046 color:TY text:"Haishen" from:28/07/2046 till:05/08/2046 color:TY text:"Noul" from:03/08/2046 till:18/08/2046 color:TY text:"Dolphin" from:03/08/2046 till:04/08/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:06/08/2046 till:12/08/2046 color:TY text:"Lana" from:14/08/2046 till:27/08/2046 color:TY text:"Kujira" from:16/08/2046 till:18/08/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:19/08/2046 till:20/08/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:22/08/2046 till:29/08/2046 color:TY text:"Chan-hom" from:27/08/2046 till:28/08/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:29/08/2046 till:05/09/2046 color:ST text:"Linfa" from:03/09/2046 till:10/09/2046 color:TD text:"25W" barset:break from:03/09/2046 till:15/09/2046 color:TY text:"Nangka" from:05/09/2046 till:10/09/2046 color:TS text:"Soudelor" from:13/09/2046 till:16/09/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:15/09/2046 till:16/09/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:15/09/2046 till:17/09/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:19/09/2046 till:20/09/2046 color:TD text:"TD" from:23/09/2046 till:02/10/2046 color:TY text:"Molave" from:23/09/2046 till:04/10/2046 color:TY text:"Goni" from:03/09/2046 till:10/09/2046 color:TS text:"Atsani" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/01/2046 till:01/02/2046 text:January from:01/02/2046 till:01/03/2046 text:February from:01/03/2046 till:01/04/2046 text:March from:01/04/2046 till:01/05/2046 text:April from:01/05/2046 till:01/06/2046 text:May from:01/06/2046 till:01/07/2046 text:June from:01/07/2046 till:01/08/2046 text:July from:01/08/2046 till:01/09/2046 text:August from:01/09/2046 till:01/10/2046 text:September from:01/10/2046 till:01/11/2046 text:October from:01/11/2046 till:01/12/2046 text:November from:01/12/2046 till:01/01/2047 text:December Category:Western Pacific Style Activity Category:Pacific typhoon season Category:Pacific Typhoons Category:Best Pages Category:Future Storms Category:Future Typhoon Seasons Category:Typhoons Category:Top 10 Lists Category:Realistic